The Law of Diminishing Return…
Dollars to donuts…
Joel Sherman has a good post today with his Hardball Blog in The New York Post entitled “’What would George do?’ among questions in Yanks’ $189M quest”.
I do not dispute the reasons for why the Yankees are financially motivated to get under the $189M threshold given the reduced tax penalties it will create for future years in addition to the savings in 2014. But can the Yankees maintain a championship caliber club in their quest to reconcile the bottom line? Something’s got to give, and I am fearful that it will be the quality of the Yankee clubs put on the field in the next few years.
That sounds kind of ridiculous to say when other clubs have proven you can succeed with lesser dollars, but in Tampa, for example, it was years of high draft picks that filled the cupboards with premier players like Evan Longoria and David Price. I see the same thing happening in Kansas City as they’ve been building solid, young talent. The Yankees, on the other hand, have been picking at the bottom end of rounds for years and there have been more than a few misses along the way. There has been a renewed emphasis on the farm system in recent years, however, it is still not within the upper echelon among the other clubs.
This paragraph in Joel Sherman’s post cuts to the heart of the problem:
“The aging/diminishing Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira plus the roughly $11 million each team is charged for a benefits plan costs about $84 million toward the luxury tax each season. That would give the Yankees roughly $105 million to complete a contender in 2014. But say Robinson Cano gets $22 million a year. Now it is $83 million for everything else. That is doable, but less so after a year in which the Yankees’ farm system regressed horribly, potentially derailing the expected pipeline of lower-cost talent.”
I checked the cities of Baltimore, Boston, and Tampa against Manhattan on a cost of living calculator and found that the equivalent salaries in New York would need to substantially greater to maintain the same cost of living. A Boston salary would need to be 63.10% greater, Baltimore 89.70%, and Tampa 145.28%. Okay, not every player will live in Manhattan and that’s probably an extreme, but it still shows on the affordability scale, it simply takes more dollars to live in New York than anywhere else. Other places like Florida and Texas have no state income tax. I am sure that when A.J. Burnett got to Pittsburgh, it wasn’t just the reduced spotlight that helped his successful turnaround, the realization of how much further his millions would go in the Steel City probably factored into the equation.
As it stands at the moment, it is very likely the Yankees enter the 2013 season as a weaker team than the one who was swept by the Detroit Tigers last month. I know, a lot can happen between now and then, but for the sake of this post, I have only the insight for where we stand today. I felt that it was essential for the Yankees to re-sign Hiroki Kuroda. As soon as there were indications that Kuroda would consider a one-year deal, the Yankees should have been aggressive in locking him up. But by delaying, the two LA teams are stepping up their pursuit and the area has an advantage given Kuroda’s familiarity and close ties to Southern CA. I believe that his wife and two daughters still reside in California. Losing Kuroda from the rotation will hurt. I am not convinced that David Phelps can match the level of performance that Kuroda achieved this past season.
The sooner the Yanks can move Alex Rodriguez to full-time DH will be better. They need a quality, front-line third baseman who can hit in the clutch. Sadly, there are not any high level prospects so free agency or a trade might be the only options. Given the former is probably not where the team intends to put its “limited” dollars, a trade is most likely the only solution. Of course, that will only deplete the Yankees of other young talent.
I guess Moneyball is alive and well and living in the Bronx. It is time for Brian Cashman to prove to the critics that he is a good general manager despite the Yankee resources. I do believe that he is so it will be interesting to see how the next few months unfold. I have read those who believe the Yankees will ultimately spend without regard to 2014, but given Hal Steinbrenner’s financial background, I see the team sticking to its plan. Time will tell if his stance is justified. Perhaps this is a radical, game-saving approach that will bring fiscal responsibility back into the game. Then again, maybe not…